Shifting Tides: Why Key Voter Demographics Chose Trump in 2024

What Seemed Like a Tight Race Became a Decisive Victory

Despite a tight pre-election polling landscape, Donald Trump secured a resounding win in the 2024 presidential election. Leveraging Engage’s AI-driven survey platform, CloudResearch conducted in-depth interviews with over 500 self-identified Trump supporters across key demographics to understand what drove them to support Trump. This research provides a detailed look into the issues, emotions, and rationale behind the votes from Black, Latino, young, and Independent voters—groups that traditionally don’t solidly align with Republican candidates but did this time around.

This unexpected shift in voters from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 was enough to put Trump ahead in every battleground state—16% of Black voters (compared to 8% in 2020), 42% of Hispanic voters (compared to 35% in 2020), 46% of under 30 voters (compared to 36% in 2020), and 45% of Independent voters (compared to 41% in 2020) chose Trump over Harris in this election cycle (data in the graph below is from AP VoteCast & Reuters).

Were the Polls Wrong?

People often blame “bad” or “incorrect” polls when an election outcome doesn’t align with polling data. And sometimes polls can be very inaccurate. However, in this election cycle, the polls were relatively accurate in predicting who would vote for Harris. When comparing the predicted percentage of people who would vote for Harris nationally, the actual percentage of people who voted for her was only off by less than .5 of a percentage point—extremely accurate. However, the actual vote for Trump was underestimated. The actual vote for Trump included nationally up to 3.8% more voters than predicted by the polls.

The increase in support for Trump may not have been captured by polls as a lot of voters from key demographics made up their minds relatively close to election day, especially the 21% of Latino voters and 14% of independent voters who made up their minds in the last week. 

So why did these voters support Trump? Our findings first shared by CBS News are described in detail below.

Economic Concerns as the Top Priority

When asked what the most important factors were that contributed to their decision to vote for Donald Trump, economic policies ranked #1 by all groups—Black, Latino, young, and independent voters.

Many voters mentioned that they felt financially strained under the current administration and had experienced better economic stability during Trump’s previous term. One 39-year-old Latino man from Texas shared, “I was concerned about the rising prices in all of goods and services. And wanted the government to be more fiscally responsible…My monthly expenses have gone up about 10% since 2021. And I have not seen large wage increases to match that, so I’ve had to scale back quite a bit.” 

Voters also expressed a preference for Trump’s stance on minimal government intervention, believing it would encourage financial growth. A 34-year-old Black financial advisor from Delaware noted, “The reasons that influenced my choice were economic resonances on which Trump insisted, such as improving the economic climate, cutting taxes, and increasing business attractiveness. I also appreciate his approach to minimal government intervention, as I think it will be healthy for the financial sector and the market.” 

Dissatisfaction with Harris’s Leadership

While Trump’s economic policies were clearly the primary issue on these voters’ minds, many voters said a significant reason for choosing Trump was due to their disappointment with Harris, associating her with policies they viewed as ineffective. This was particularly evident among Black and Latino voters who had previously leaned Democratic but felt let down by her stance on issues like inflation and immigration. A 30-year-old Black educator from Texas shared, “She was core assistant to Joe Biden and they are both responsible for not managing inflation and cost of living among Americans. I see no good that Kamala Harris would do as president of America…Her stance on Immigrants largely made me decide against voting for her.” 

Likewise, Latino participants voiced concerns about Harris’s approach, with a 52-year-old Texas woman noting, “I dislike Trump and think he’s an immoral man in general, but I have very strong beliefs on abortion, immigration and climate change. Trump aligned with 2/3 of my main concerns. Harris did not align with my views.” 

Support for Strong Immigration and National Security Policies

In contrast to voters’ perceptions of Harris’s policies, Trump’s strong stance on immigration was another deciding factor, especially for Latino and young voters concerned about the effects of immigration on local communities. A 26-year-old mother from Utah stated, “I loved his immigration policy because there are so many scary people that aren’t supposed to be here. He is going to send them back home.”  

Similarly, many voters were drawn to Trump’s policies for national security, viewing them as a crucial response to rising crime and safety concerns in their communities. As a 39-year-old Independent voter noted, “Seeing the women that were killed or harmed by illegal immigrants or illegal gang members made me fearful for my wife and daughters and other family members in my life.”

Policy Alignment Over Personal Appeal

Despite reservations about Trump’s personality, particularly among young and Independent Trump supporters, voters chose to prioritize policy alignment over character. A 21-year-old college student from Texas explained, “Yes, I don’t greatly approve of or support him. He is polarizing…and extreme in some measures (which may be a good thing if done well, to be fair). His platform also seems unfortunately to provide a safe space for racists and extremists…” 

Some voters chose Trump despite acknowledging personal reservations, saying they felt a “hold your nose and vote” obligation to support policies they saw as more beneficial. A 34-year-old Independent White woman from Washington expressed, “I find the rhetoric that he throws around that is incredibly hateful towards minorities and women to be completely offensive. The amount of cursing and hateful speech he gives makes my skin crawl.” 

However, the vast majority of the voters we surveyed indicated that they did not perceive any conflict at all with their decision to vote for Trump.

So Where Did Harris Fall Short?

Besides aligning with more conservative policies proposed by Trump over Harris’s more progressive platform, many voters felt Kamala Harris lacked the experience and authenticity they were looking for in a leader. Some Black and Latino voters expressed frustration with her approach to economic and immigration issues, blaming her for failing to manage inflation and for perceived leniency on immigration, which they felt contributed to rising crime. As a 29-year-old biracial man from Texas described, “She was in charge of the border situation since she took office, and I live very close to the border so I have a unique lens. I am in constant fear for my life over the illegal murderer immigrants that live near me. They took over my apartment complex and it is even dangerous for me to walk my dog. They are all gang members, and they have a lot of money. I feel she is responsible for these people terrorizing my neighborhood.” 

For others, Harris’s responses seemed evasive or insincere; they viewed her as unwilling to take strong stances or address tough questions directly. Independent voters, in particular, felt she was out of touch, relying on celebrity endorsements and vague promises rather than concrete policies. As this Independent voter from PA put it, “She is a complete phony, both as a person and on policy. She has no conviction on any of her stances and it was obvious to me she was just saying whatever she thought gave her the best chance of getting elected. She often cannot even articulate her beliefs, and when she does it is a jumbled and confusing mess. She thought she could buy support and good will by assembling an army of celebrities who are completely out of touch with everyday Americans, and I question her intelligence quite a bit.”  

It’s this sense of disconnect and perceived ineffectiveness that, in part, drove these voters to support Trump.

In sum, Trump garnered broad-based appeal across diverse demographics. Despite their varied backgrounds and individual concerns, Black, Latino, young, and Independent voters found common ground in Trump’s policies. This convergence allowed him to build a broad coalition of support, culminating in a decisive victory.

In-Depth Voter Interviews from Engage

To provide more insight into what Engage is and how it works, our research team at CloudResearch has selected interview transcripts that stood out to us.

39-year-old biracial man, Independent, from Texas

To get started, what were the most important factors that contributed to your decision to vote for Donald Trump?

I was concerned about the rising prices of all goods and services. And wanted the government to be more fiscally responsible. I also wanted to have better border security and enforcement.

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I appreciate your open response. It seems like economic concerns and border security were significant factors in your decision. Can you share a particular incident or event that made you feel strongly about these issues?

My monthly expenses have gone up about 10% since 2021. And I have not seen large wage increases to match that, so I've had to scale back quite a bit. Also, the rising crime in the area is concerning, and the money being spent on welfare government services for many of the immigrants.

It's clear these financial changes and rising crime have impacted your judgments. Could you possibly share more about how your personal experiences with these discrepancies, or any specific event turned your focus towards a more fiscally responsible government and stringent border security?

Yes, knowing that the federal debt is ballooning out of control and the interest payments are in the trillions of dollars is very concerning. Higher interest rates due to inflation have caused economic slowdowns. And the recent news about immigrant crimes, and gang activity is concerning.

Considering your support for Donald Trump was largely influenced by concerns over economic factors and border security, have you experienced any conflict within yourself regarding policies that you agree with, like fiscal responsibility, and aspects of his personality or platform that might negatively impact your community as a Hispanic/Latino?

Now, as a Hispanic, that is a citizen, I am for legal immigration, but it must be orderly, and just like we balance our budgets at home and at work, the government must balance their budget.

Was there anything specific that Kamala Harris did or represented that deterred you from voting for her?

Yes, she did not have a great plan to stop the government spending waste and continues to offer free money to people based on skin color. It did not seem fair to me and there was no plan to increase border security.

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34-year-old Black man, Republican, from Delaware

To get started, what were the most important factors that contributed to your decision to vote for Donald Trump?

The reasons that influenced my choice were economic resonances on which Trump insisted, such as improving the economic climate, cutting taxes, and increasing business attractiveness. I also appreciate his approach to minimal government intervention as I think it will be healthy for the financial sector and the market.

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It's interesting to hear how key financial and economic factors were crucial in your voting decision. Can you remember a specific event or incident that reinforced these core beliefs and convinced you that Donald Trump was the winning choice for these issues?

A recent source that supported me was Trump's decision to advance tax reform in 2017. Indeed, watching how tax cuts increased business investments, and the size of the markets further convinced me of the correctness of his economic politics.

Thank you for detailing that specific incident. Can you walk us through your feelings and thought process as you saw these changes taking place after the 2017 tax reform? How did it affect your view on the role of government in economic matters?

This view was cemented when companies and the stock market reacted positively to the Tax Cut and Jobs Act implemented in 2017, and other parts of the corporate regulatory system were eased. This just strengthened my belief that the government has little part to play in an economy and should allow business to lead the way.

Given that you've expressed appreciation for Trump's economic policies, I'm interested in exploring any possible nuances or tensions in your viewpoint. Have you ever experienced any conflict between the economic initiatives you agree with and aspects of Trump's personality or platform that you feel might negatively impact the Black community?

Yes, I do see some conflict. Even though I agree with the majority of Trump's economic vision, I was somewhat skeptical about how his words and actions might influence social cohesion, particularly, black people. Perhaps some of the things he says can widen the gap, and although not directly affecting economic opportunity and inclusion, it does so indirectly.

It must have been a complex process dealing with this conflict. How did you reconcile your concerns about potential social divisions with your support for Trump's economic policies? And did you ever discuss this conflict with other Black people during your decision-making process, especially those who were voting for Harris?

It was a challenging balance. To address these objectives I used the positives of Trump's economic message such as tax and creating jobs which I believed had the potential to positively influence all the Black communities. I talked this over with other people – Black voters for Harris, if it hasn't already been mentioned – and it seems we were on the same page when it came to economic mobility and disagreed on how to achieve it. In the end, I focused on the economic consequences, though I still consider the social statuses he creates for people.

Are there any specific actions taken or statements made by Kamala Harris that dissuaded you from voting for her?

Yes, a few things stood out. The fact that Kamala Harris is open to higher taxes and more government expenditures was worrisome to me, because both are dangerous for economic expansion and one's ability to control personal wealth. Also, she had a rather rigid view regarding the regulation of businesses, which in my view seems too restrictive for allowing innovation as well as job generation. These positions did not reflect my values that is why I tend to support Trump.

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29-year-old White man, Independent, from Minnesota

To get started, what were the most important factors that contributed to your decision to vote for Donald Trump?

Economy, and to some extent illegal immigration.

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Can you elaborate on how economy was a factor in your decision? Were there specific economic issues or policies of Trump's that influenced your decision?

I just thought the economy as a whole was better under Trump excluding COVID-19.

Thank you for sharing, it sounds like you felt the economy was stronger during Trump's presidency pre-COVID. Can you name a specific event or incident that made you feel this way, or was it more of an overall impression?

The S&P hit a record high under his presidency, and the day after the election, it hit a new record high as did bitcoin. Clearly the economy prefers a Trump presidency.

I understand better now. The stock market performance seemed to have left quite an impression on you regarding the overall economy. Let's talk about the other factor, illegal immigration. Could you explain in more detail how this issue influenced your voting decision?

I am pro-immigration don't get me wrong. My girlfriend is a legal immigrant, and I saw how hard it was for her to get a green card and eventually taking the citizenship test. It isn't fair to the people who are doing the legal process of immigration for people to come here illegally and stay.

In supporting Trump, did you ever find yourself conflicted with any aspects of his personality or policies that did not align with your views, particularly in relation to economic initiatives or issues of immigration?

I think he has an abrasive personality but right now, I think he is a better choice due to global tensions particularly with Iran and Israel. I just don't think Kamala had the strength and fortitude to avoid World War 3.

It sounds like there might have been some conflict when deciding to vote for Trump due to his personality. Yet, you also mentioned global tensions, particularly with Iran and Israel, as significant factors. Could you share more on how you came to reconcile these feelings about his personality with the decision to vote for him?

There are upsides and downsides to Trump as there are with any candidate. While he can be a bully, right now America needs to regain its status for global hegemony, and this can't be done with a leader who may be perceived by foreign governments as weak.

I see, it seems you thought Trump's strong personality could serve as an advantage in global politics. On another note, have you had any difficult conversations with supporters of Kamala Harris about your decision to support Trump?

I am not happy with the Trump supporters rubbing it in Democrat's faces. It only causes division when people do that. I think Harris delivered an authentic and genuine concession speech. I am glad that she told her supporters not to question the election results.

It sounds like you value civility and unity in political discourse. Reflecting on your decision to vote for Trump, can you share a detailed explanation or a particular incident that finally made you feel comfortable with your choice? How did you come to terms with the potential conflicts, if any?

I see how both sides are essentially paid shills for their party, and it really frustrates me. I see it as a moral failing for someone to take money knowing full well all they are doing is causing division. Since a 3rd party candidate wouldn't have a chance, I had to go with who I thought would be stronger based on current tensions.

You mentioned global tensions were a factor that led you to vote for Trump. Outside of that, was there anything specific that Kamala Harris did or any policies she supported that made you decide not to vote for her?

I wasn't satisfied with the Biden/Harris presidency, and I think if she wanted to implement the policies that she talked about during the campaign, she had 4 years to do it.

That's an interesting point. Could you further explain which policies these were and why you feel they were not implemented effectively during Harris' term?

Take the no tax on tips policy. This is something she promised to do as president, but she was VP for the last 4 years and could have implemented such a policy. It's pretty insignificant as a policy itself but saying that you are going to make all these changes when you were second in command for the last 4 years shows that she didn't use her power when she had it.

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40-year-old White woman, Independent, from Georgia

To get started, what were the most important factors that contributed to your decision to vote for Donald Trump?

I was going to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. However, he joined forces with Trump after suspending his campaign and urged voters to vote for Trump instead. I really want to see RFK Jr in the White House, so I voted for Trump.

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That's an intriguing reason. Can you share any specific events, speeches or incidents involving Robert F. Kennedy Jr or Donald Trump that deeply influenced your decision?

Trump held a rally in Arizona a couple of months ago where he invited RFK Jr to speak. This is also the same day that RFK Jr gave a speech of his own on national television that nearly moved me to tears.

It definitely sounds like that was a pivotal moment for you. Can you share what it was about RFK Jr's speech that resonated with you so much and how did it make you feel?

I could sense his sincerity in caring for the health of the country, physical health, mental health, and the health of the government. The Democrats are not what they used to be when JFK was president. It made me feel like there really is a politician that actually cares for once.

Given that your decision to vote for Trump was heavily influenced by RFK Jr., do you find yourself conflicted between any aspects of Trump's personality or platform and RFK Jr's views which originally drew you to him?

Yes and no. I've been objectively paying close attention to Trump, and I have not observed anything that is a turnoff. Sure, he's not a man of big words, but he wants what's right for the country. Kennedy is a much better speaker, but that is trivial considering the change the country needs.

I understand. Would you be able to share about any difficult or challenging conversations you had with Harris supporters or others about your decision to vote for Trump?

All conversations are the same. I feel as though I have to walk on eggshells when speaking to them about facts. They are immediately on the offense, and when presented with legitimate facts, they turn hostile and call me a liar or a simp or tell me to cope. It's mind boggling how they simply cannot see nor understand the facts when they are right in front of them. I try to be nice and it doesn't work.

That sounds like a challenging experience. Could you tell me more about your initial decision to support RFK and how you reconciled that with your eventual decision to vote for Trump? Did it involve any personal experiences or emotional journey?

I first learned RFK Jr was running in June or July of 2024 after hearing him speak on a podcast. From then on, I paid close attention to his campaign. I even donated, signed a petition for ballot access, and volunteered. Eventually, by late August or early September, it was evident that the Democrats were going to keep doing everything in their power to keep Kennedy from winning. I thought it would be necessary for him to join forces with Trump, and a week later Kennedy announces that he will. It was scary at first, but I realized that the decision was courageous and necessary.

You've touched upon your motivations to vote for Trump and your conversations with Harris supporters. I wonder if there was anything particular that Kamala Harris did or said that discouraged you from considering voting for her? Also, as a woman, do you feel any conflict in supporting Trump, who may not align as strongly with women's reproductive health and abortion rights as Harris does?

As for Harris, there is not a single thing she has said that I agree with. I paid close attention and gave her the benefit of the doubt, but all she did was lie, give non-answers, and be as inauthentic as possible. I feel ZERO conflict in supporting Trump because I agree that abortion should be up to the states. Harris lied continuously about abortion rights and Trump's stance on them. My biggest gripe with Kamala is the inability to give a straight answer when asked a question, and the inability to be straightforward. It has nothing to do with gender. In fact, it would be an embarrassment and a blow to women if she became the first female president when we have someone like Tulsi Gabbard.

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20-year-old Latina woman, Independent, from Florida

To get started, what were the most important factors that contributed to your decision to vote for Donald Trump?

During his time, the economy was at its best. The gas prices were low, and the cost of living was more affordable. His support for Christianity and old-fashioned values also aligns with my beliefs.

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You mentioned the improvement in economy and alignment with your beliefs as significant factors for your decision. Was there a specific incident or event that led you to finally decide to vote for Donald Trump? If so, could you share more about that?

What led me to finally decide for Trump was being informed about Kamala Harris and her incompetency for being a leader in this country, and knowing about the new policies Trump will impose.

Thank you for providing more information. Could you elaborate on what specific policies of Trump were appealing to you and how they influenced your decision?

If any teacher suggests to a child that they can change their gender, Trump will impose charges on those adults. Trump will also ensure that children cannot access gender affirmative care.

Thank you for sharing that. Could you please tell me more about your personal experiences or emotions that might have influenced your position on these policies?

I believe it is wrong for children to make decisions about changing their gender and biological makeup when their maturity level and minds are just beginning to develop. These decisions should only be made by adults over the age of 18 who are more conscious of themselves and the consequences these procedures may have on them.

You mentioned how Trump's policies on education and gender-related issues factored significantly into your decision to support him. In this context, have you experienced any conflict between these policies you agree with and certain aspects of Trump's personality or platform that might have a negative impact on you as a member of the Hispanic/Latino community?

As a Latina, I am aware that Trump does not show open support for immigrants in this country, and I am aware that he can be quite brass when expressing himself. However, my beliefs for who is the best candidate goes beyond personal biases. The border has been out of control recently, and too many immigrants have invaded this country. Every country has the right to secure their border and control who enters for the safety and well-being of the economy.

I understand the conflict you're facing. By any chance, did you have any tough conversations with other Latinos who were planning to vote for Harris? Can you share what those discussions were like if they occurred?

Personally, I have not had discussions with other Latinos in favor of Harris. My family and close friends are in support for Trump, and for those that aren't, we simply don't discuss politics.

Earlier, you mentioned aspects of Kamala Harris's leadership that influenced your voting decision. Can you further elaborate on any specific actions or behaviors of hers that dissuaded you from supporting her?

Kamala cannot answer simple questions, much less explain herself to difficult ones. As vice president, she was in charge of securing the border, which she failed to do, and she didn't make any positive impacts to the country during her time.

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