Understanding Undecided Voters: Insights from a Longitudinal AI-driven poll.
As the election approaches, political analysts are continuing to focus on undecided voters, a group that will likely tip the scales in a very tight presidential race. How will these undecideds make up their minds? What is most important to them? To better understand their motivations and concerns, we used our AI-driven survey tool, Engage, to have in-depth conversations with 2,000 undecided voters over a six-week period. On October 30th, we focused on a sample of over 400 participants to dive deep into what truly drives their indecision. While undecided voters are often viewed as a monolithic group who are politically unengaged, we uncovered the diversity of the undecided voter using AI-powered interviews. By exploring the distinct motives and concerns of left-leaning, right-leaning, and centrist undecided voters, our research offers a more textured picture of the various reasons behind voter indecision and highlights key insights into this crucial group.
Half of the voters (53%) who were undecided six weeks ago remain undecided less than a week from election day. The other half of voters who now have identified the candidate they intend to vote for are split between Team Trump and Team Harris. As Trump and Harris continue to campaign across the US, how can they best sway remaining undecided voters to join their team?
Persistent Indecision Across Ideological Lines
Our in-depth interviews revealed that, while undecided voters share uncertainty, their reasons vary significantly based on their ideological leanings.
Left-Leaning Undecideds: These voters often hesitate to support Kamala Harris due to concerns about her authenticity and alignment on key issues. Some expressed dissatisfaction with Democratic stances on foreign policy and social justice, citing specific grievances. For example, a 25-year-old Black woman from Indiana remains undecided because “The genocide in Gaza and the recognition of islamophobia as an actual issue to Democrats, as well as the acknowledgment of Palestinian humanity.” Overall, they seek reassurances that their chosen candidate can authentically address critical concerns, particularly surrounding healthcare, abortion rights, and economic inequality.
Right-Leaning Undecideds: For right-leaning voters, the dilemma often stems from frustration with Donald Trump’s character, but they generally alight with his policies. While they support conservative approaches to the economy and immigration, concerns about personality and representation lead to hesitation. As a 49-year-old White woman from Washington put it, “Trump is horrible and embarrassing. I’d only vote for him because of his position on economic policies.” In our interviews, we also had voters participate in voice-to-text online conversations on Engage. Listen in to hear more about what a right-leaning undecided voter had to say about his personal indecision:
Centrist Undecideds: Centrists face significant trade-offs with both candidates. They are drawn to Harris’s perceived empathy and focus on social issues but worry about economic policies. Conversely, Trump’s approach to the economy appeals to some but is overshadowed by concerns about trustworthiness and stability. Many expressed frustration with the limited choices and a desire for more authentic and transparent leadership. A 52-year-old White man from Michigan weighs the pros and cons of each candidate: “Neither strikes me as honest. Compassion for others is huge, and I’d give Harris the nod there. Caring for the average American is paramount, and again I’d give the edge to Harris. I think Trump is superior with foreign policy.”
What It Will Take to Win Over the Undecided Voter?
So, what actions should the Harris and Trump campaigns take to continue winning over undecided voters? Based on our interviews with formerly undecided voters who have now made up their minds, it’s clear that different factors need emphasis when appealing to right-leaning versus left-leaning undecided voters:
Many undecided voters ultimately decided to support a candidate despite their reservations. Among those who chose Harris, 87% did so simply because she is not Trump, while 67% of those who chose Trump did so because he is not Harris. While candidates cannot change who they are, they can employ other strategies to win over undecided voters.
To appeal to left-leaning undecided voters, our data suggest that candidates need to continue to highlight their character and leadership ability. The key for Harris, however, is to clarify her policies and economic positions which many felt are not presented in sufficient enough detail to win them over. To appeal to right-leaning undecided voters, Donald Trump needs to convince the voters he has the character worthy of the presidency, as this is key factor holding right-leaning undecided voters from supporting him.
As Election Day draws near, the choices of undecided voters will profoundly shape the future of the United States. Engage’s AI-powered interviews reveal that these voters are far from politically unengaged or uniform. Instead, they face complex decisions influenced by diverse motivations.
About CloudResearch
CloudResearch is an online platform that connects researchers with more than 100 million research participants worldwide. CloudResearch provides tools to carry out complex online projects and polls for the academic, public, and private sectors. Engage is CloudResearch’s latest research innovation, using AI to combine the power of traditional and conversational surveys at scale cloudresearch.com.
In-Depth Voter Interviews: Insights from AI-Driven Polling
To provide more insight into what Engage is and how it works, our research team at CloudResearch has selected interview transcripts that stood out to us.
64 year old Hispanic man, Independent, Florida
Earlier, you mentioned that you plan to vote for Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, but also mentioned that there is some chance you might vote for Donald Trump. What specific factors contributed to this decision and what may make you consider changing your vote by election day?
I need to hear more about. What Vice President Harris really stands on the issues? I'm not getting a full image of what she would like to be as a president.
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I understand that you're looking for more clarity around Vice President Harris's stance on key issues. Could you perhaps specify which issues particularly concern you and why are they important to you?
The issue I'm most important on is the economy. I need to hear specifically what she will do to manage the economy going forward. I am about to retire in a few months and I will be living on a fixed income, so I need to know what the economy is going to look like in the next two years.
It's clear that the management of the economy will significantly influence your voting decision, given your upcoming retirement. Do you feel that there are specific economic indicators or policies that you tend to focus on as you evaluate a candidate's approach to managing the economy? For instance, are you more interested in job growth, tax policy, or a different economic factor?
I'm really interested in the direction of the stock market and where interest rates are going.
Understanding the direction of the stock market and the future of interest rates is indeed crucial for your financial planning, especially as you are about to retire. Can you recall any recent events or information about these two areas that have influenced your thoughts or added to your uncertainties about whom to support in the upcoming election?
I am thinking of supporting Trump. If Elon Musk is part of the government, he said. He's going to cut $2 billion from the, excuse me, $2 trillion from the government. And I would like to see that happen. I think it would be very beneficial.
Your consideration of Trump due to Elon Musk's potential involvement shows that the prospect of significant government cuts is compelling to you. Can you elaborate on why you feel that a $2 trillion reduction in government spending would be beneficial? Specifically, what impact do you believe this would have on the economy and your personal financial situation?
This cut would be drastic and it would definitely keep interest rates down because the government wouldn't have to print more dollars. I think there's incredible inefficiency in our government and I would like to see this addressed.
At this point, you've indicated that there's a chance you may vote for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, with compelling reasons regarding economic policy. But you've also mentioned that you recently changed or made up your mind about your voting decision. What event or reasoning led to this shift? Was there something specific that one or both of these candidates did to influence your current position? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
I listened to the Joe Rogan podcast and I got some good input from Donald Trump. This may be lean towards him even though I don't trust him and think he's juvenile. If he continues to say that Elon Musk will be part of his administration, I would seriously give a thought in the next week to changing my view.
28 year old White woman, Independent, Colorado
To get started, I'd like to hear about your perspective regarding making a decision for who to vote for by election day. What specific factors contribute to your indecision at this point in the election?
I honestly dislike both candidates for different reasons.
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Could you please elaborate a bit more on your feelings towards each candidate? What specifically causes your conflict when it comes to potentially supporting either candidate?
I don't support many of Kamala's policies, but overall she is less of a wild card, and as a person she is miles above Trump in character and integrity. On the other hand, I support a few more of Trump's policies, but I do not trust him and think he is bad for America.
I appreciate your candidness. Regarding your feelings on trust and integrity of the candidates, are there any specific incidents or examples that have led you to develop these opinions?
Trump's rhetoric is awful. He is dividing our country and perpetuating hate and xenophobia. Take for example his recent rally at Madison Square Garden this week.
Thank you for sharing the specifics. I can see how his recent rally could play a role in shaping your perspective. Reflecting on your values and priorities, how do they align or conflict with the positions Trump took at that rally? Could you please elaborate?
I do not believe that Puerto Rico is a "floating island of trash." I don't believe in alienating immigrants or the diverse cultures that make up our country.
Is there anything at this point that could persuade you to vote for one candidate or the other? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
I wish Kamala would have more moderate economic policies, such as Trump's focus on eliminating over-regulation and shrinking the deficit.
57 year old White man, Independent, Wisconsin
To get started, I'd like to hear about your perspective regarding making a decision for who to vote for by election day. What specific factors contribute to your indecision at this point in the election?
I am just uncertain that my values are in alignment with Kamala Harris as much as they would need to be for me to vote for her.
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I appreciate you sharing that with me. Can you provide more detail about the specific ways you feel your values might not align with Kamala Harris' policies or positions?
I am not in agreement with her policy on Israel, and I am not in alignment with her policy on transgender issues.
Thank you for elaborating on that. Could you share a specific incident or information that influenced your views on her stance on Israel and transgender issues?
I'm just weary of always providing Israel the weapons which they use to indiscriminately bomb and kill with impunity. Also, I think that biological boys need to compete with biological boys, and biological girls need to compete with biological girls, especially in grade school and high school, so that no opportunities are unfairly lost when it comes to scholarships and things of that nature.
That's a very thoughtful perspective. Can you share if there were any interactions or discussions with friends, family members, or others in your social circle that influenced these views?
Generally speaking, no. I've learned to keep most political discussions away from family and friend conversations. I think those friends who are in alignment with me politically probably don't need to have a lot of conversation about it, and if I were to talk with my family about it, it would only cause strife.
I totally understand how political discussions can be sensitive, especially among loved ones. On this note, are there other sources where you usually get your information regarding candidates and their positions?
I'm a fan of Reddit.
It sounds like online platforms play a significant role in your process of forming political views. Can you share a recent event or information that you've come across on Reddit that had particularly influenced your indecision?
So there isn't a particular issue that has come up recently on Reddit that has caused me to change my mind. But the thing that I like about Reddit is that. In any typical discussion, multiple points of view are displayed and they usually have sources and facts to back up their opinions. I've found it to be a good source of information on both sides of an issue.
Reddit definitely provides a varied perspective. With regards to the candidates, are there any specific traits or actions they've taken that have made you hesitate in your decision-making?
Not particularly. I mean, Trump has been a consistent jerk for his entire life, so there isn't anything that he's going to say or do at this point to win me over. But I'm just not sure enough about Kamala Harris and her policies to know whether or not I should vote for her or whether I should cast my vote for a third party candidate. I think that a third party is what I would prefer to see, but I'm not sure if it's viable at this point.
It's clear you're thoughtful about your choices. As you've mentioned a potential third party candidate, could you share what specific qualities or policies you're hoping to see in a viable third party candidate?
Honestly, I am more moderate in my stances. I would like to see a little more fiscal responsibility. I would like to see a little more social conservatism, perhaps. I would like to see us getting away from the vast amount of money that we spend on the military every year and invest some of that money in social programs.
Is there anything at this point that could persuade you to vote for one candidate or the other? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
I will probably end up voting for Kamala Harris only because letting Trump have four more years in the White House would almost be unrecoverable from as a country. As much as I worry about what a Harris administration might mean in some issues, I believe that if these are our two options, she is a much, much better candidate than Trump.
43 year old Mixed-race woman, Independent, Pennsylvania
To get started, I'd like to hear about your perspective regarding making a decision for who to vote for by election day. What specific factors contribute to your indecision at this point in the election?
I just really don't know enough about the candidates. I just want to make the decision that's right for me and my family. Reproductive rights are a huge issue to me, but I'm also a fiscal conservative as much as I'm a social liberal, so there's really not a candidate out there that speaks to people like me.
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I appreciate you sharing that. It's clear that you're considering multiple factors in your decision-making. Can you elaborate a little more on what specifically causes a conflict for you in supporting Kamala Harris, given your concerns about fiscal conservatism and reproductive rights?
I mean, I think that she does a good job in the reproductive rights side of things. I just have some concerns when it comes to how I am in terms of fiscal conservativeness. I just don't know whether some of her policies would be too expensive. I'm upper middle class and a single mother. It feels like there's almost nothing designed for somebody like me, right? All the policies are either designed to help the very wealthy or they're designed to help like people who are very poor.
That's an insightful point, being mindful of your financial situation along with pushing for liberal social values can be a challenging crossroad. As for Donald Trump, considering your social liberal perspective, where do you find hesitance in supporting him?
Honestly, I just don't think that Donald Trump really cares about people. That's the problem. I do think he cares about the country. I do think that he cares about money. I just don't think he cares about people. And I'm a mom, so I have to care about my kids. And I would want the president to care about my kids, too.
I hear your concern about wanting a candidate who really cares about people, including your children. This is indeed important. Have you had any discussions with friends or family about the election that have caused you to tilt towards or away from a certain candidate? Could you please share one of those conversations?
I've had a conversation with one of my friends who's an evangelical born again Christian. But the problem is that she doesn't seem to care about what happens to people with demographics that don't match hers, right? So I don't know, it's made me feel a little less supportive of Donald Trump because of the way that she acts and the things that she says and the fact that she supports him makes me think that I shouldn't. That's the best way I can put it. You know, she told me before that while she understands that white privilege is perhaps an issue for some people, she doesn't think it's important to her because who as a mom wouldn't want their kids to have the most that they could possibly have? So it's OK that her kids have white privilege because they're white and she would only want to vote for a president who is going to support her kids having first rights. And that's Donald Trump. So if that's true, that's not good for me and my kids.
It's clear that your friend's viewpoint has had a significant impact on your perspective, especially regarding Donald Trump. Having such a crucial conversation must have been very profound. Can you recall any specific traits or actions of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump that have caused you to hesitate in your decision-making?
I am a highly educated person. I have an Ivy League law degree. So I think that it's I probably can relate more to Kamala Harris than I can relate to Donald Trump. I'm actually even half Jamaican. So I think that that is something that is helping me, but what's made me hesitate is that I'm just not sure whether Kamala Harris really will have my family in mind or if she will only be fighting for people who are in a higher tax bracket than mine. I make $120,000 a year. That's pretty decent money, but I'm not getting any of the handouts for the wealthy. I'm also not getting any of the benefits for the people who are poor. So there really isn't much for me and that has had me hesitate in my decision making. Neither candidate has anything for single moms. Neither candidate has anything for people who are right where I'm at. You know, it's like I've made it, so to speak, but I really haven't.
46 year old White man, Independent, Georgia
To get started, I'd like to hear about your perspective regarding making a decision for who to vote for by election day. What specific factors contribute to your indecision at this point in the election?
One of the points will be women's rights and the other will be finance, so economics, things like that.
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Thank you for sharing those key points, I understand that women's rights and finance are important to you. Could you expand a bit more on your view about these areas? Particularly, what specific aspects of women's rights and economics are you focusing on that is leading to your current indecision?
Making sure that the economy is headed in the right direction so that everyone can benefit from it.
I appreciate your insights. Can you provide any specific incidents or events that have occurred recently that have added to your concerns about the economy? This could include personal experiences or wider socio-economic trends that you've noticed.
One of the most easily noticed things would be grocery prices and how other prices are coming down, but grocery prices are not.
Thank you for pointing that out. I hear your concern about the rising grocery prices and understand how this directly impacts your daily life. Can we talk more about your second point, women's rights? Could you explain what specific aspects in this area contribute to your indecision in this election?
Every person should be allowed to do what they want with their own bodies.
Is there anything at this point that could persuade you to vote for one candidate or the other? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
Am undecided and will probably decide once I get to the polls.
Can you describe how important a candidate's policies are for your voting decision versus how important a candidate's character/personality is for your voting decision?
There are both positives and negatives to each candidate, which is making it difficult to choose.
35 year old White man, Independent, Louisiana
To get started, I'd like to hear about your perspective regarding making a decision for who to vote for by election day. What specific factors contribute to your indecision at this point in the election?
I'm worried that a female president will not be strong enough to deal with dictators like Putin or Kim. Also, the economy is important to me and Harris's plan is not very well researched.
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Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Let's delve a bit deeper into your economic concerns. Can you explain what specifically about Harris's economic plan leaves you uncertain or conflictful?
I'm not sure what she plans to do about inflation. I haven't heard anything concrete about what she will do about reducing the national deficit. I haven't heard anything about her increasing wages for jobs.
Thanks for explaining that. It seems clear that understanding the candidate's economic policy is very important to you. Have you had conversations with friends or family about this? How have these interactions influenced your feelings or perspective towards the candidates and their economic policies?
My conversations with friends and family have not influenced my feelings at all because they seem to all have the same questions as I do.
I see, so it seems that those around you also share similar concerns and uncertainties. This kind of collective questioning can indeed amplify indecision. Let's look at the other side of the coin now. Concerning Donald Trump, what makes you still reluctant to fully support him as a candidate despite your concerns about Harris's economic plan?
He is a convicted felon. He was the worst president we ever had in history. He botched the COVID crisis. He is a liar. He is a fan of Putin and Kim Jong-un, who is our enemy. He's terrible.
It's clear that you have strong feelings about Trump's actions and capabilities. Could you explain further how these actions and traits of his conflict with your values and priorities? And, have there been any specific incidents during his previous presidential tenure that caused these feelings to deepen?
The way he bungled the COVID-19 response and his being sued by Stormy Daniels is a huge red flag for me when it comes to Donald Trump.
Is there anything at this point that could persuade you to vote for one candidate or the other? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
I will most likely vote for Kamala Harris. There's really nothing that could make me vote for Donald Trump. But liberals and Democrats these days are very cultish, and it seems like the media and powers behind the scenes want Harris to win, and that makes me nervous, so I will probably make my decision the day that I show up to vote.
37 year old White man, Republican, North Carolina
You mentioned earlier that you are planning to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Can you share with us the specific factors that contributed to your decision to vote for him on election day?
Kamala Harris seems like a really bad candidate, and the only other candidate that's possible is Donald Trump.
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You expressed a preference for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. Could you delve into some of the specific aspects about Kamala Harris's candidacy that have induced your hesitance to support her?
Seems incompetent and she seems like she can't answer questions that weren't given to her ahead of time. She seems kind of weak and she seems a little bit too liberal.
You've mentioned that you find Kamala Harris's seeming inability to answer impromptu questions along with her perceived liberal stance as a factor contributing to your hesitation. I'd be interested to know, have there been any particular instances or events during the current election campaign that accentuated your concerns about her competence and liberalism?
In Pennsylvania, she was asked why she would be good for Pennsylvania residents, and she couldn't think of one reason why Pennsylvania should vote for or why she should be able to help them.
Thank you for that detailed example. It's clear how this incident influenced your perception of Kamala Harris as a candidate. Now, let's talk more about Donald Trump. Considering the concerns you have with Kamala Harris, what traits or actions of Donald Trump have led you to lean towards supporting him? For example, are there any specific moments during his campaign that have contributed to your decision?
He's always unapologetically been Donald Trump. He refuses to back down and he's decisive and he's never stopped being himself.
You mention Donald Trump's unapologetic attitude and decisiveness as factors that attract you. Could you tell us about a specific moment or incident during his campaign where these qualities stood out for you and further confirmed your voting decision?
During the debate he was losing, but he refused to back down and he just exhibited true Donald Trump behavior.
Thank you for sharing that. It's interesting to see how Donald Trump's performance in the debate influenced your voting decision. Now, reflecting on your personal values and priorities, how do you feel they align with Donald Trump's positions? Are there any specific issues or aspects where you feel a strong resonance or alignment with his stance?
Immigration policy. Kamala Harris doesn't seem very worried about the amount of immigrants that are flooding our country. Donald Trump seems to understand that it takes away from Americans and our values to constantly have people just freely cross our borders.
Thank you for explaining your perspective. It's insightful to understand how their positions on immigration align or conflict with your personal values. Now, has talking about the election with friends or family members shaped your feelings about Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in any way? If so, can you share some examples of recent discussions or points raised that have influenced your perspective?
We have spoken about how we need someone that can be a strong leader and put America first and not be afraid to stand up against other countries.
That's insightful. Having a strong leader and putting America first seems to be a common theme in your discussions. Are there particular examples or instances during this election cycle where you felt Donald Trump personified these traits? By contrast, were there any moments where you felt Kamala Harris fell short in these areas?
Not that I can recall, I just feel that on his past performances that he has shown that he's not afraid to stand up against other countries and I know he'll do that again, even if he's not always politically correct.
You mentioned earlier that you had recently changed or made up your mind about your voting decision for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Can you tell us what influenced your decision to move from undecided to deciding to vote for Donald Trump? Was there a specific reason or event involving Donald Trump that helped you make up your mind? Feel free to share as much as you're comfortable with.
First, I thought I preferred Kamala Harris, but seeing her performance during live interviews or live debates when she wasn't prepared made me realize that Donald Trump would certainly be better for America.
CloudResearch conducted a first of its kind, longitudinal, online poll using AI-driven interviews to explore how voters’ perceptions changed before and after the September 10th debate.
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