Based on a July 17th, 2025 Siena College and CloudResearch poll, a 47% plurality of New Yorkers believe that the country’s best days are behind us. These economic outlooks are strongly influenced by political affiliation, with Democrats expressing significantly more pessimism than Republicans. For example, while two-thirds of Republicans are optimistic about their personal financial future, less than half of Democrats feel the same. To understand the “why” behind this data, the Siena College Research Institute partnered with CloudResearch to conduct AI-assisted, in-depth interviews with 114 of the poll’s respondents.
The “Why” Behind the Partisan Divide
A Note on Our Approach:Every quote in this analysis is representative of measurable trends. When we cite a respondent’s words, we can tell you what percentage of their demographic group expressed similar themes—combining the authenticity of personal narratives with the rigor of quantitative analysis.
Among most New York State residents, pessimism about the economy is driven by immediate financial pressures:
I live on a net income of $1400. The county I live in has no transportation system in the rural areas so a vehicle and everything it entails are necessary. However, Social Services doesn’t account for such things so I am not entitled for EBT… I was the poor working class and there is no way out.
There is also general concern that rising costs are hitting households directly:
The utilities have gone up 18% this year and property taxes are also rising.
However, while New Yorkers of all political backgrounds are feeling the squeeze of a high cost of living, this shared anxiety does not explain the starkly different outlooks of Democrats and Republicans on the nation’s economic future. A closer look at our in-depth interviews reveals that the gap in pessimism is driven by which level of government citizens trust or, more pointedly, distrust.
For Democrats, a broad spectrum of fears appears to stem from a singular, overarching theme: the policies and conduct of the Trump administration. This was a dominant theme for a substantial number of Democrats, while being almost entirely absent from our conversations with Republicans. This central anxiety then cascades into more specific economic worries, such as concerns about Social Security and Medicare cuts, tariffs, unpredictable trade policies, and unequal distributions of wealth (see Figure 1).
In all of these cases, Democrats express deep concerns about the future of the economy. For instance, the future of social safety nets was a major topic of discussion, with one person, soon to retire, voicing direct concern about President Trump “blowing up social security and medicare”. Furthermore, unpredictable trade policies were another recurring worry that Democrats linked to economic instability. These fears were often tied to a broader perception that the system is designed to help the wealthy, exacerbated by the current government:
Wealth disparity in the US has reached insane levels, and the current administration seems intent on dismantling what limited social support systems exist.
Conversely, Republicans’ optimism about the future of the economy stems from a general trust in President Trump and his economic policies (see Figure 2):
Just waiting on our President. He made promises and I expect him to keep them like last time.
They convey a sense that the Trump administration will reduce taxes and stimulate favorable conditions for their personal finances as President Trump is fixing Biden’s mess. And they also place their trust in Trump’s America first policies:
I believe Trump’s push to bring jobs back to United States, and he doesn’t want war.
Energy policy generates particular enthusiasm among Republicans, who believe domestic production initiatives will have broad economic benefits, with participants saying:
He’s taken the handcuffs off the energy producers.
Bringing down energy prices deters inflation.
Government efficiency efforts also resonate strongly, with participants supporting waste reduction measures:
Finding people on social security and medicare that don’t belong or are dead!
While another respondent stated:
I also applaud the attempt to bring back financial accountability to the different government agencies in the form of D.O.G.E.
While Republicans have a positive view of the Trump administration, our interviews show that their frustrations are pointed in a different direction. They are far more likely to voice concerns at the local and state levels. Their pessimism is often fueled by a disdain for New York State’s policies, with some residents viewing relocation as a financial strategy to escape what they see as a burdensome environment:
…looking to move outside of nyc when I retire in order to buy an affordable home and to minimize taxes. cannot live here in retirement – too expensive and city is always run by left of center politicians so I doubt it will improve.
Republicans commonly expressed frustration with Democratic policies on economic outcomes:
Our leadership in NY is placing illegals and Tish James above the taxpayer.
For some Republicans the sentiment is even more stark:
Sell everything in NY and get out.
This focus on local leadership, rather than federal policy, marks a clear distinction in the source of their pessimism.
Ultimately, while many New Yorkers share the burden of immediate financial pressures, the interviews reveal a stark political divide on the path to prosperity. For many Democrats, the primary economic threat is the national political climate, fearing that the Trump administration’s policies on trade and social safety nets will trigger a recession. Conversely, Republicans see those same policies—focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and an ‘America First’ agenda—as the precise solution that will stimulate growth. This demonstrates that for many voters, their outlook on the economy is not based solely on their personal financial situation. Instead, it is fundamentally shaped by their political identity and, most critically, by their trust in the government leaders currently in power.
Figure 1. Economic Concerns Segmented by Political Party
Figure 2. Economic Confidence by Political Party
Examples of Full Transcript Interviews
To provide more insight into what Engage is and how it works, below we include abridged transcripts from four interviews.
White woman, 62, Democrat:
What, if anything, in particular could potentially shake your optimism about your future finances?
Getting ahead
Staying even
Falling behind
Don't know
Don't know
Continue Reading
As you look to the future and think about your finances would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic?
Very optimistic
Somewhat optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
Somewhat pessimistic
Very pessimistic
Don't know
Somewhat optimistic
Overall when it comes to money, would you say you are getting ahead, staying about even or falling behind?
The collapse of our democracy. The collapse of our economy. Trump's idiotic economic "policies" (if you want to call them that) could easily trigger a depression OR recession which would change our lives practically overnight.
If it weren't for the Trump administration, his catastrophically inept and unqualified cabinet and staff, corrupt and biased judges and lawyers in the justice department, incompetent Secretary of Defense and staff I'd be feeling completely optimistic.
All of my "don't know" answers were because it all depends on what that orange imbecile does to our global reputation, economy, immigrant community, LGBTQ community, people of color, women, veterans, underserved, and educational and medical system.
All norms are shattered. Multitudes of laws have been broken. The level of unconstitutionality practiced by him and those around him is breath-taking. I thank God I have dual citizenship with Canada. I have a literal plan to get me, my husband, my two young adult children and precious dog out of NYC if necessary. I only hope it's in time should the shit hit the fan.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Otherwise, I do feel optimistic. We are a privileged family with some money invested and little debt. But it could all be wiped out in an instant by the actions of the MAGAts and inaction of our democratic leaders.
Given your concerns about the political and economic landscape, what specific steps or plans have you put in place to safeguard your financial future?
We have diversified our investments. We have invested in property and real estate. We have some old-fashioned savings. We try to limit our spending on non-essential items. We have two children in college, so that is getting a lot of financial attention right now. We work to maintain our good health hoping to prevent high medical costs down the line, but again, one accident or illness could strain our resources if not wipe us out completely.
Given your concerns about the current political climate and its potential impact on your finances, would you say your optimism is more influenced by your personal financial management or by external factors like the broader economy and political environment?
Personal financial management and hope that we can turn this ship around before long-term/permanent damage is done.
Would you describe yourself now as retired, retired and working, or not retired?
Retired
Retired and working
Not retired
Not retired
Specifically, how confident are you in President Trump´s ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Not at all confident
What are the main factors that make you feel somewhat confident about having enough money through retirement?
It all depends upon my husband's ability to continue working at the level he has been, and us not having any unexpected setbacks.
Given your husband's current work situation and potential unexpected setbacks, are there any specific financial strategies or plans you have considered to help ensure a comfortable retirement?
Our parents are in their mid-to-late 80s. They have been transparent with their wills and disbursal of their estates. While neither will leave us independently wealthy, both have real estate and modest trusts which will go a long way towards keeping us solvent. But of course, this is contingent on their not needing to use their assets for their own care. Otherwise, we are following the guidelines suggested by financial planners to the best of our ability. Of course, we hope that social security and Medicare will be there when we need it. It has always been a comfort believing it would be.
Considering the current economic climate and the potential changes in Social Security and Medicare, how do these factors influence your outlook on retirement
The worry that they will be gone does add to our concern.
What specific actions has President Trump taken that have decreased your confidence in his ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty?
Are you kidding? Where should I start? First of all, we were in excellent economic shape when he took office. His threat of tariffs has triggered a stock market roller coaster. His saber rattling about the wars in Ukraine, Israel, and now Iran destabilizes our financial situation. Global confidence in the US dollar is at an all-time low. He's a moron.
Have you noticed any changes in your own financial situation since President Trump took office?
Groceries, gas, and repair services are all more expensive; my company is holding off on raises due to economic uncertainty. My husband's company reduced its workweek to four days, resulting in a 20% decrease in his income from that source.
Given your concerns about the current political and economic situation, are there any actions or policies you would like to see from the next president to increase your confidence in their ability to lead the country out of economic difficulty?
Higher taxes on corporations and the truly wealthy; more regulation of business, especially in the tech industry; more oversight on Wall Street. Significant investments in healthcare (including mental health) for all, high quality childcare and education from pre-k through college or trade school will lead to a more robust, intelligent, and healthy population in just a few years.
White woman, 62, Republican:
Overall, when it comes to money, would you say you are getting ahead, staying about even or falling behind?
Getting ahead
Staying even
Falling behind
Don't know
Falling behind
Continue Reading
As you look to the future and think about your finances would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic?
Very optimistic
Somewhat optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
Somewhat pessimistic
Very pessimistic
Don't know
Somewhat pessimistic
What would it take or what changes would need to occur for you to feel more optimistic about your future finances?
raises that make up for high inflation over the past 6 years. NYC government should tax and spend much less. Regulations should be cut to help businesses do better so they can avoid price increases, hire more, and pay better. We should not elect Mandami mayor of NYC. Stop giving any taxpayer money to illegal immigrants or other unproductive uses.
How much of your pessimism comes from your own situation versus what's happening in the broader economy or things happening in the world around you?
Mainly I have concerns for the broader economy as I'm close to retirement and don't want my purchasing power to erode due to govt mismanagement of the economy or high taxes
Given your concerns about the broader economy and its potential impact on your retirement, what specific steps or plans do you have in place to protect your financial future?
Keep saving as much as possible. Looking to move outside of NYC when I retire in order to buy an affordable home and to minimize taxes. cannot live here in retirement - too expensive and city is always run by left of center politicians so I doubt it will improve.
As you look forward, how confident are you in the government´s ability to take all necessary actions that will lead the nation out of any current economic difficulty? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Not very confident
Specifically, how confident are you in President Trump's ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Somewhat confident
What specific actions has President Trump taken that have increased your confidence in his ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty?
DOGE was a great effort but too much push back from Dems leaves me afraid we will end up in a debt spiral. Trumps deportations will save money. Trump is business friendly and wants low taxes and lower spending. all good but dems will fight it all the way.
How does your confidence in President Trump's economic leadership compare to previous presidents you've experienced?
Trump is much better than any recent administration by far. but he could do better
Are there any economic policies or decisions that you hope President Trump will implement in the future?
cut all aid to states that harbor illegals or give benefits to them. work requirements for welfare benefits and time limitations. continue with DOGE style cuts and fraud detection. cut all federal aid to education/higher education.
Which of the following two statements more closely matches your thinking about the economy?
Unfortunately, I think our country's best economic days are behind us. I'm afraid the next generation will have to accept a lower standard of living.
The current economic problems our country faces are temporary. I believe the country's economy is strong and we will as a people make adjustments to return us to financial health.
Don't know
Unfortunately, I think our country's best economic days are behind us. I'm afraid the next generation will have to accept a lower standard of living.
Asian man, 27, Democrat:
As you look to the future and think about your finances, would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic?
Very optimistic
Somewhat optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
Somewhat pessimistic
Very pessimistic
Don't know
Somewhat optimistic
Continue Reading
What specific steps or plans do you have in place that contribute to your optimism about your future finances?
Invest savings to grow wealth through long-term capital gains.
How much of your optimism comes from your own situation versus what's happening in the broader economy or things happening in the world around you?
Mixed- the broader economy is highly volatile and uncertain, but there is the potential for dramatic improvement given certain (likely) outcomes on TACO trade (tariffs for negation, then cancelled/lowered), interest rate cuts, and AI for workforce augmentation. I'd say this scenario is more likely, so I am mostly optimistic. However, I'm aware that the other scenarios would mean stagflation and automation.
My own situation is being employed and maintaining strict price discipline, so having enough savings. However, I feel I'm quickly falling behind original goals and peers who planned earlier due to recent economic slowdowns and current uncertainty.
What, if anything, in particular could potentially shake your optimism about your future finances?
Market downtowns, tariffs, stagflation, high interest rates, continued slowdown in hiring, unemployment, and automation.
Would you describe yourself now as retired, retired and working, or not retired?
Retired
Retired and working
Not retired
Not retired
How confident are you that you will be able to retire and have enough money to maintain your quality of life throughout your retirement? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Somewhat confident
What are the main factors that make you feel somewhat confident about having enough money through retirement?
Early planning and investing, historical market growth, and price discipline make me confident. Potential for future downturns make me cautiously/somewhat confident.
You mentioned that potential for future downturns makes you cautiously confident. Can you elaborate on what specific economic factors or trends you are concerned about that could potentially affect your retirement savings?
Stagflation, automation of jobs without policy changes to provide income, market crash (drop in asset prices).
Given your concerns about potential economic downturns and the impact of automation on jobs, what steps or measures do you think could be taken at a policy level to mitigate these risks and enhance your confidence in your retirement savings?
Dependent on severity of problem, but - Universal Basic Income, investment accounts for all citizens at birth, tame national debt, reduce overall government spending to lower "crowding out" effect to boost private sector investment and growth, regulate and protect American interests in AI (make sure US "wins the AI race" so that global economic benefits are reaped by the US), invest in or incentive companies to reskill/reeducate workers for a post-AI economy, increase rights and protection on basic necessities (healthcare, shelter, food) to boost safety net for low-income citizens, introduce regulations stabilizing prices of basic necessities (particularly rent).
As you look forward, how confident are you in the government´s ability to take all necessary actions that will lead the nation out of any current economic difficulty? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Somewhat confident
Specifically, how confident are you in President Trump´s ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty? Are you...
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not very confident
Not at all confident
Don't know
Not very confident
What specific actions has President Trump taken that have decreased your confidence in his ability to lead the country out of any current economic difficulty?
Tariffs (main issue), poor relationship with federal reserve chairman, funding bill that would increase national debt, DOGE efforts seem poorly planned and political (not truly streamlining agencies to increase efficiency), and geopolitical instability.
Are there any specific economic policies or actions that you would like to see President Trump take that you believe could potentially increase your confidence in his leadership?
Establish trade deals, remove or lower tariffs, act towards genuine government efficiency to lower debt.
How does your confidence in President Trump's economic leadership compare to your confidence in previous presidents' economic leadership?
Uncertain- too early to tell but overall slightly lower than previous leaderships, but somewhat higher than Biden presidency due to overspending post-COVID.
Which of the following two statements more closely matches your thinking about the economy?
The current economic problems our country faces are temporary. I believe the country's economy is strong and we will as a people make adjustments to return us to financial health.
Unfortunately, I think our country's best economic days are behind us. I'm afraid the next generation will have to accept a lower standard of living.
Don't know
The current economic problems our country faces are temporary. I believe the country's economy is strong and we will as a people make adjustments to return us to financial health.
White woman, 67, Democrat:
As you look to the future and think about your finances would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic?
Very optimistic
Somewhat optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
Somewhat pessimistic
Very pessimistic
Don't know
Very pessimistic
Continue Reading
What, if any, specific changes or events would need to occur for you to feel more optimistic about your future finances?
Your questions are difficult to answer without allowing for explanation. I'm losing money in my IRA, taxes going up (retired), own a home but can't downsize because smaller places cost more than staying where I am, postponing repairs, needed new furniture due to costs and tariffs, limiting all spending as much as possible. To be remotely 'optimistic' we'd have to get rid of Trump and Maga, not pass a spending bill that will make the already overly rich overly richer. We would need to improve access to and affordability of health care for all people. We would need to protect our representative democracy. I'm not in favor of this country becoming authoritarian. We would need to make it affordable for my adult children to buy a home and have a family of their own. We would need to protect the environment, we would need to protect the rights of all people, we would have to have a way for people to emigrate and become citizens here and not be dragged off the street and sent to prisons in other countries, we would need to restore all that Elon and his doge boys torn asunder, we would need to restore a belief in science and monies to research to prevent and eliminate deadly diseases. We would need to continue to make life saving vaccines available. We would not limit a person's ability to wear a mask (as a way to limit their exposure to illness). We would not be sending unidentified masked persons to drag people off the streets to fulfill Stephen miller's hateful plan of deportation. We would recognize that abortion is part of health care. We would accept the separation of church and state and throw out the absurd desire to reconfigure the USA as a Christian nationalist country. We would not prevent trans people from becoming their true selves.
I could go on and on, and if a human is reading this now, thank you.
How much of your pessimism about your future finances comes from your own personal situation versus what's happening in the broader economy or things happening in the world around you?
My pessimism is solely due to Trump, Maga, project 2025, etc. my husband and I planned for decades for our retirement. Unfortunately, he didn't make it, passing in 2019, but left me in a position to 'live comfortably in retirement'. Part of that plan included social security, and that is at risk.
Given the issues you've mentioned, do you have any personal financial strategies or plans in place to mitigate the impact of these broader societal concerns on your own financial situation?
I work closely with my financial advisor, financially savvy family members and stay informed as best as I can. I will continue to limit spending as much as possible and postpone larger ticket purchases as long as possible. I will continue to contact elected representatives to express my opinions about what is being done to this country by frump.
About CloudResearch
CloudResearch is an online platform that connects researchers with more than 100 million research participants worldwide. CloudResearch provides tools to carry out complex online projects and polls for the academic, public, and private sectors. Engage is CloudResearch’s latest research innovation, using AI to combine the power of traditional and conversational surveys at scale. Engage® is protected by U.S. Patents Nos. 12,243,066; 12,254,873; and 12,314,969 B1, granted in 2025.
Founded in 1980, the Siena College Research Institute conducts regional, statewide and national surveys on business, economic, political, voter, social, academic and historical issues. Recognized as one of the premier polling centers in the nation, the Siena College Research Institute has achieved an exceptional A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight and in both 2022 and 2023, was honored as the number one polling institute in the United States by the same outlet for its unparalleled accuracy and commitment to excellence.
Contact: Don Levy, Ph.D., Director, Siena College Research Institute, 518-783-2901, dlevy@siena.edu
